From Surplus to Insufficient Rainfall, India Observes an Extreme Variation in Rainfall This Year
Every year after long heated summers, India always awaits the monsoon, meanwhile the variation and pattern of rainfall have always affected certain states very harshly by destroying homes and crops whereas certain states receive a very small amount of rainfall making it difficult for the people to survive comfortably. While monsoon rainfall in India as of July 22, 2022, was 10% above average nationwide, the southwest monsoon’s intensity and dispersion around the country have varied greatly over its first 52 days.
According to information from the Union Ministry of Home Affairs’ Disaster Management Division, flooding, landslides, and other extreme events including lightning have been reported in 21 states and Union Territories (UTs) as of July 21. In 0.34 million hectares of cropland, the intense events have destroyed or damaged crops, killing 1,172 people.
States that observed surplus rainfall
Large surplus rainfall has been observed in three states and one UT. These include Gujarat, Dadra and Nagar Haveli, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, and Daman and Diu.
As of July 22, Telangana has the most surplus among them, at 111%. There has been too much rain in two UTs, six other states, and one other. Up until July 22, twelve states and four UTs had normal rainfall, while seven states and one UT had insufficient precipitation.
States with insufficient rainfall in 2022
In Kerala, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Bihar, and Uttar Pradesh, there is a long-term trend in monsoon rainfall. In 2022, these states will see a monsoon season that is insufficient.
A study that was conducted in June 2015 and was published in the journal Nature Communications revealed a decreasing tendency in these states’ rainfall between 1901 and 2012.
Topping the charts is Uttar Pradesh at 58 percent, which has become the state with a maximum deficit in the country followed by Jharkhand as the second highest at 51 percent.
Meanwhile, Bihar received 45 percent less rainfall than the average, West Bengal has a 29 percent deficit, and Kerela with 19 percent deficit.
Causes of such a trend
This trend is caused by the Indian Ocean’s rapid warming, which lessens the contrast between ocean and land temperatures and reduces monsoon rainfall. The difference and variation between the different latitudes are one of the factors that the monsoonal rain depends upon.
According to Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology in Pune, if land warming catches up with ocean warming, the strength of the monsoon circulation will rely on the outcome of this tug-of-war.
As per the report by Down To Earth
“Although the 2015 article demonstrates a long-term drying trend that resembles the climatological rainfall pattern, this is just a sign that the weaker monsoon circulation must be causing such a pattern. However, we must be concerned with the standard deviation that surrounds that trend, he added, according to the report provided by Down to Earth.
Raghu Murtugudde, a climate scientist at the University of Maryland in the United States and a co-author of the 2015 study, advised against putting much faith in patterns and trends.
Murtugudde emphasized the link between the Arabian Sea warming and the excessive rainfall that has affected most of India. The Arabian Sea provides about 35% of the moisture for these events. He also argued that the excessive rainfall was partly caused by the low-level jet stream, a belt of winds that transports moisture from the surrounding oceans to India during the monsoon season.